August 21, 2006

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3pointD transcribes a fascinating keynote talk by Mitch Kapor at the Second Life Community Convention this weekend.

Also, he gives a name to an effect I am constantly citing:

One thing that’s very important to keep in mind is something called Macromyopia. For people who are inside a new phenomenon like Second Life, we tend to overestimate the short-term effects. We think more great things are going to happen sooner than they typically do. Conversely, we underestimate the long-term impact.

Or: In the short-term, things change slower than we expect them to. In the long-term, they change more than we ever imagined they would. Now I know what to call it!